The purpose of this page is to give a clear and reliable prediction of the matric 2025 pass rate per province, based on real performance data from 2022, 2023, and 2024. Every year, people want to know which province will come first, how the weaker provinces will perform, and whether the national pass rate will rise or fall.
This article looks at all of those questions in one place. It explains how the pass rate has moved over the last three years, how the national average climbed to 87.26 percent in 2024, and why all nine provinces are now performing above 80 percent for the first time.
Inside this article you will find a full table comparing provincial pass rates for 2022, 2023, and 2024. You will also see a detailed explanation of the major trends, including which provinces improved the fastest and which ones remained stable at the top. After comparing the confirmed data, the article then gives a realistic prediction of the matric 2025 pass rate per province, including the most likely provincial rankings and the expected national percentage.
This page gives a factual, data-based look at how each province is performing and what South Africa can expect when the 2025 matric results are released.
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National Pass Rate Trends
The national matric pass rate moved from 80.1 percent in 2022 to 82.9 percent in 2023 and then climbed sharply to 87.26 percent in 2024. That is a 7.16 percentage point rise in only two exam cycles. The 2024 result is also the highest pass rate ever recorded in the National Senior Certificate since it began in 2008.
One of the most important signs of long term system stability is that all nine provinces crossed 80 percent in 2024. In 2022, provinces like Limpopo and Northern Cape were still sitting in the low seventies. The Department of Basic Education also confirmed that 73 out of the 75 districts in the country reached above 80 percent. That means this is not a small elite trend. It is a nationwide shift.
Provincial Comparison (2022 to 2024)
| Province | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free State | 90.99% | 89.0% | 88.5% | +2.49 |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 89.52% | 86.4% | 83.0% | +6.52 |
| Gauteng | 88.41% | 85.4% | 84.4% | +4.01 |
| North West | 87.52% | 81.6% | 79.8% | +7.72 |
| Western Cape | 86.56% | 81.5% | 81.4% | +5.16 |
| Eastern Cape | 84.98% | 81.4% | 77.3% | +7.68 |
| Limpopo | 85.01% | 79.5% | 72.1% | +12.91 |
| Mpumalanga | 84.99% | 77.0% | 76.8% | +8.19 |
| Northern Cape | 84.19% | 75.8% | 74.2% | +9.99 |
This table already tells the full story. The top three provinces have remained stable. Free State is still number one. Gauteng and KZN rotate second and third place. The middle group is no longer dominated by Western Cape alone. North West, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo have moved into the 85 percent range.
Provinces With the Biggest Improvement
Limpopo is the most dramatic turnaround. Moving from 72.1 percent in 2022 to 85.01 percent in 2024 is not normal growth. Northern Cape and Mpumalanga also gained nearly ten points over the same period. This proves that the rise in the national average is not inflated by a single province.
Why 2024 Was So Strong
Department programmes focused on:
- Extra tutoring in rural schools
- Better district level monitoring
- Improved marking moderation
- Focus on bachelor passes instead of just raw pass rates
This helped weaker provinces close the gap without lowering standards.
Matric 2025 Pass Rate per Province: Real Prediction
Based on the three year trajectory, the expected matric 2025 pass rate per province will follow this pattern. Free State should remain number one and is likely to reach between 91 and 92 percent. KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng will continue fighting for second place and may both reach 89 to 90 percent. North West and Western Cape should settle around 87 to 88 percent. Limpopo, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, and Northern Cape will stabilise in the 84 to 86 percent range unless a major shock affects the system.
| Province | Predicted % Pass Rate 2025 | Expected Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Free State | 91% – 92% | 1 |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 89% – 90% | 2 |
| Gauteng | 89% – 90% | 3 |
| North West | 87% – 88% | 4 |
| Western Cape | 87% – 88% | 5 |
| Limpopo | 85% – 86% | 6 |
| Eastern Cape | 85% – 86% | 7 |
| Mpumalanga | ±85% | 8 |
| Northern Cape | 84% – 85% | 9 |
| National Prediction | 88.5% – 89% | — |
The national pass rate itself is likely to rise again. From 87.26 percent in 2024, the most realistic prediction is that South Africa will reach between 88.5 percent and 89 percent in 2025. It is possible that the country reaches 90 percent by 2026 if recovery support continues.
The Real Story Behind These Numbers
For the first time since apartheid, South Africa does not have a low performing province below 75 percent. The system has shifted from inequality to competitiveness. That matters more than who holds the number one spot. It means that a learner in Giyani, Mthatha, Kimberley, or Mitchells Plain now has almost the same pass rate odds as a learner in Johannesburg or Bloemfontein.
The 2025 result will not be about chasing Free State. It will be about keeping every province permanently above 80 percent, while pushing the national average closer to 90 percent without lowering standards.
Reference List
- Department of Basic Education (DBE) – National Senior Certificate Examination Report 2024
(Official national pass rate and provincial breakdown) - Department of Basic Education (DBE) – NSC Examination Report 2023
(Comparative provincial performance tables) - Department of Basic Education (DBE) – NSC Examination Report 2022
(Full performance analysis and district rankings) - Umalusi Council – Quality Assurance Statement on the 2024 NSC Results
(Confirmation of integrity and statistical moderation) - Parliamentary Monitoring Group (PMG) – DBE Briefing on Matric Results Trends
(Provincial performance insights and improvement strategies) - South African Government News Agency – “Class of 2024 Achieves Highest Matric Pass Rate in History”
(Public confirmation of the 87.26 percent national rate) - News24 Education Desk – Provincial Matric Rankings 2022 to 2024
(Media-recorded provincial positions and improvement patterns) - eNCA Matric Results Coverage Archive
(Live announcement figures cross-checked with DBE final reports)
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